Chinese buyers are switching what they invest in

Four conclusions

• Domestic trimming is not an exit from property: money leaves the domestic market and arrives offshore.
• The test changed from "how much will it rise" to "what nets through each month, and who buys it in five years".
• Four markets absorb most of the demand, each for a different function.
• 2027 is when the reallocation lands — from the arithmetic of instalments and delivery schedules, not from a forecast.

1 · The money left the domestic market, not the asset class

Domestic real estate has the strongest stated intention to reduce of any asset class, above 20% net. In the same surveys, 45% of high-net-worth households plan to increase their overseas allocation within three years, and 56% plan to add overseas financial products within one year.

These are sequential, not contradictory. A family lightening in Shanghai or Shenzhen has not stopped owning property; it moved the exposure somewhere it believes is more predictable.

The base is small: overseas assets average about 15% of investable assets, 26% at ultra-high-net-worth level, 30% above RMB 50 million. The top is committed; the layer beneath has barely started.

2 · What clients ask before they commit

Net income, not gross. Tax, service charge, letting fees, insurance, maintenance reserve, vacancy and currency cost usually take two to three percentage points off the brochure figure.

Growth argued on supply. Buyers ask how many units are under construction within two kilometres and when they are delivered — not what the city did last year.

A way out. Resale evidence: which units changed hands, at what price, how long they took.

Because we answer for the client rather than the seller, these become three documents we require before a project enters our selection: a rent roll with deductions shown, a supply table for the postcode, a resale record. A project that cannot produce them is not argued against; it stays outside the list.

3 · Where the demand landed in 2026

4 · Why this is a window

Domestic property is releasing capital, not reducing total exposure. The overseas share is still 15%, so most of the reallocation has not moved yet. And the alternatives narrowed: Europe keeps making property-for-residence harder, which concentrates attention on the routes that remain.

5 · Why 2027

The money moves in instalments across 2027–2029. New-build completions run two to four years behind the sale, so a 2027 purchase hands over in 2029 or later. At a 15% base, each year moves the total by a point or two.

2027 is not a forecasting question. It is a preparation question: buyers will ask for documents most of the supply side still does not bring.

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